COVID-19 could cancel 28 million surgeries

15 May 2020 | Story Staff writer. Photo Ruhrfisch, Wikimedia. Read time 4 min.
Disruption caused by COVID-19 could lead to 28.4 million elective surgeries being cancelled or delayed globally this year, including over 146 000 in South Africa.
Disruption caused by COVID-19 could lead to 28.4 million elective surgeries being cancelled or delayed globally this year, including over 146 000 in South Africa.

More than 28 million elective surgeries across the globe could be cancelled as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to patients facing a lengthy wait for their health issues to be resolved. That is according to a new study led by researchers at the University of Birmingham in the United Kingdom and including the University of Cape Town (UCT).

Based on a 12-week stretch of peak disruption to hospital services due to COVID-19, the CovidSurg Collaborative projects that 28.4 million elective surgeries worldwide will be cancelled or postponed in 2020. The modelling study, published in the British Journal of Surgery, indicates that each additional week of disruption to hospital services will be associated with a further 2.4 million cancellations.

The CovidSurg Collaborative is a research network of over 5 000 surgeons from 120 countries focused on the impact of COVID-19 on surgical care. This study was led by members based in the United Kingdom, Benin, Ghana, India, Italy, Mexico, Nigeria, Rwanda, Spain, South Africa and the United States.

The researchers collected detailed information from surgeons across 359 hospitals and 71 countries on plans for cancellation of elective surgery. They then modelled the data to estimate totals for cancelled surgery in 190 countries.

The researchers project that worldwide some 72% of planned surgeries would be cancelled through the peak period of COVID-19-related disruption.

Most cancelled surgeries will be for non-cancer conditions. Orthopaedic procedures will be cancelled most frequently, with 6.3 million such surgeries cancelled worldwide over a 12-week period. Globally, 2.3 million cancer surgeries will be cancelled or postponed.

 

“Patients’ conditions may deteriorate, worsening their quality of life as they wait for rescheduled surgery.”

In South Africa, it is estimated that this will result in over 146 000 cancelled surgeries, including 12 000 cancer procedures. These cancellations will create a backlog that will need to be cleared after the COVID-19 disruption ends.

“Each additional week of disruption to hospital services results in an additional 12 000 surgeries being cancelled,” said Professor Bruce Biccard, second chair in the Department of Anaesthesia and Perioperative Medicine at UCT. “Following the surge in the epidemic, we are going to need a continuous assessment of the situation, so that we can plan a safe resumption of elective surgery at the earliest opportunity.

“Clearing the backlog of elective surgeries created by COVID-19 is going to result in a significant additional cost to the national health department. The government will have to ensure that the national Department of Health is provided with additional funding and resources to ramp-up elective surgery to clear the backlog.”

“During the COVID-19 pandemic, elective surgeries have been cancelled to reduce the risk of patients being exposed to COVID-19 in hospital, and to support the wider hospital response, for example, by converting operating theatres into intensive care units,” commented co-author Aneel Bhangu, consultant surgeon and senior lecturer at the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Global Health Research Unit on Global Surgery at the University of Birmingham.

“Although essential, cancellations place a heavy burden on patients and society. Patients’ conditions may deteriorate, worsening their quality of life as they wait for rescheduled surgery.

“In some cases, for example, cancer, delayed surgeries may lead to a number of unnecessary deaths.”

  • CovidSurg Collaborative et al. (2020) Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID‐19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans. British Journal of Surgery. DOI: 10.1002/bjs.11746

Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Please view the republishing articles page for more information.


Coronavirus Disease 2019 updates

COVID-19 is a global pandemic that caused President Cyril Ramaphosa to declare a national disaster in South Africa on 15 March and implement a national lockdown from 26 March.

UCT is taking the threat of infection in our university community extremely seriously, and this page will be updated regularly with the latest COVID-19 information.

Campus updates

 
  •  Information
  •  Normal
  •  Caution
  •  Alert

Daily updates


Friday, 5 February 14:20, 5 February 2021
Monday, 4 January 16:50, 4 January 2021
Friday, 18 December 11:30, 18 December 2020
Thursday, 19 November 09:30, 19 November 2020
Friday, 13 November 12:40, 13 November 2020
Friday, 16 October 10:05, 16 October 2020
Wednesday, 14 October 12:50, 14 October 2020
Tuesday, 22 September 14:10, 22 September 2020
Friday, 11 September 10:05, 11 September 2020
Monday, 31 August 12:20, 31 August 2020
Wednesday, 12 August 10:20, 12 August 2020
Friday, 7 August 11:24, 7 August 2020
Thursday, 6 August 18:26, 6 August 2020
Monday, 27 July 14:00, 27 July 2020
Wednesday, 15 July 09:30, 15 July 2020
Monday, 13 July 14:25, 13 July 2020
Monday, 6 July 16:20, 6 July 2020
Thursday, 25 June 10:15, 25 June 2020
Tuesday, 23 June 12:30, 23 June 2020
Thursday, 18 June 17:35, 18 June 2020
Wednesday, 17 June 10:45, 17 June 2020
Tuesday, 2 June 12:20, 2 June 2020
Friday, 29 May 09:25, 29 May 2020
Monday, 25 May 14:00, 25 May 2020
Thursday, 21 May 12:00, 21 May 2020
Wednesday, 6 May 10:00, 6 May 2020
Tuesday, 5 May 17:05, 5 May 2020
Thursday, 30 April 17:10, 30 April 2020
Tuesday, 28 April 10:30, 28 April 2020
Friday, 24 April 09:35, 24 April 2020
Thursday, 23 April 17:00, 23 April 2020
Wednesday, 22 April 14:25, 22 April 2020
Monday, 20 April 17:45, 20 April 2020
Friday, 17 April 12:30, 17 April 2020
Thursday, 16 April 09:45, 16 April 2020
Tuesday, 14 April 11:30, 14 April 2020
Thursday, 9 April 09:00, 9 April 2020
Wednesday, 8 April 15:40, 8 April 2020
Wednesday, 1 April 15:50, 1 April 2020
Friday, 27 March 11:40, 27 March 2020
Thursday, 26 March 18:30, 26 March 2020
Tuesday, 24 March 15:40, 24 March 2020
Monday, 23 March 15:40, 23 March 2020
Friday, 20 March 16:00, 20 March 2020
Thursday, 19 March 09:15, 19 March 2020
Wednesday, 18 March 16:00, 18 March 2020
Tuesday, 17 March 12:50, 17 March 2020
Monday, 16 March 17:15, 16 March 2020

Campus communications


New SRC and other updates 16:44, 4 November 2020
Virtual graduation ceremonies 13:30, 21 October 2020
Online staff assembly and other updates 15:09, 30 September 2020
Fee adjustments and other updates 15:21, 16 September 2020
Call for proposals: TLC2020 10:15, 26 August 2020
SAULM survey and other updates 15:30, 5 August 2020
COVID-19 cases and other updates 15:26, 5 August 2020
New UCT Council and other updates 15:12, 15 July 2020
Upcoming UCT virtual events 09:30, 15 July 2020
Pre-paid data for UCT students 14:25, 22 April 2020
Update for postgraduate students 12:55, 20 April 2020
UCT Human Resources and COVID-19 16:05, 19 March 2020
UCT confirms second COVID-19 case 09:15, 19 March 2020
Update on UCT COVID-19 response 13:50, 11 March 2020
Update on COVID-19 17:37, 6 March 2020

Resources

Video messages from the Department of Medicine

Getting credible, evidence-based, accessible information and recommendations relating to COVID-19

The Department of Medicine at the University of Cape Town and Groote Schuur Hospital, are producing educational video material for use on digital platforms and in multiple languages. The information contained in these videos is authenticated and endorsed by the team of experts based in the Department of Medicine. Many of the recommendations are based on current best evidence and are aligned to provincial, national and international guidelines. For more information on UCT’s Department of Medicine, please visit the website.


To watch more videos like these, visit the Department of Medicine’s YouTube channel.

Useful information from UCT

External resources


News and opinions


Statements and media releases


Media releases



Read more  

Statements from Government



 
 

In an email to the UCT community, Vice-Chancellor Professor Mamokgethi Phakeng said:
“COVID-19, caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2, is a rapidly changing epidemic. [...] Information [...] will be updated as and when new information becomes available.”

 

We are continuing to monitor the situation and we will be updating the UCT community regularly – as and when there are further updates. If you are concerned or need more information, students can contact the Student Wellness Service on 021 650 5620 or 021 650 1271 (after hours), while staff can contact 021 650 5685.

 

TOP