COVID-19 info for Africa by Africans

23 July 2020 | Story Niémah Davids. Photo Pexels. Read time 6 min.
The Afrikan Research Initiative’s COVID-19 project has been setup to map and track the spread of the pandemic on the continent.
The Afrikan Research Initiative’s COVID-19 project has been setup to map and track the spread of the pandemic on the continent.

Led by two University of Cape Town (UCT) alumni, the Afrikan Research Initiative (ARI) – a continental non-profit research organisation – is dedicated to providing vital epidemiological information about COVID-19 to keep Africans informed about the prevalence and spread of the pandemic.

ARI cofounder Thabo Mabuka, a chemical engineering graduate from UCT’s Faculty of Engineering & the Built Environment, said his organisation brings essential information about issues that affect the continent to its people. He described ARI as an information hub created by Africans for Africa.

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, ARI established the COVID-19 Project to map and track the spread of the disease and its burden on the continent. Part of its work is to suggest targeted interventions on how the continent should deal with the virus.

“We started ARI to create a platform that veers from the traditional research model where funding influences research projects on the continent, to a more community propelled online research model,” he said.

“We also wanted to meet the growing need for Afrocentric information and data on pertinent issues that affect our country and the continent. The coronavirus disease is one such example. We want to show that we are proactive in the research space.”

UCT News caught up with Thabo for more information on ARI’s COVID-19 Project and the progress the team has made to date.

Niémah Davids (ND): Tell us about ARI’s COVID-19 project.

Thabo Mabuka (TM): Our main goal is to develop a COVID-19 risk assessment epidemiological model for African countries during and after lockdown. Essentially, this model provides epidemiological information on the virus to help governments on the continent manage the pandemic effectively.

We’ve already developed an SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered) model that focuses on compartmentalising the population into different classes, and we use statistical and clinical fundamentals about the virus to try and predict what things will look like in the future.

 

“We use statistical and clinical fundamentals about the virus to try and predict what things will look like in the future.”

Thus far, we’ve developed a model for South Africa, which indicates that if the current national lockdown remains in place, the potential peak of daily COVID-19 cases will be reduced by 72%. We also noticed an overall 47% reduction in the daily number [of cases] due to better screening, use of [personal protective equipment] PPE and proper hygiene practices. These results show the effectiveness of social distancing, the benefits of PPE and hygiene practice from an epidemiological perspective.

Our model differs from other current existing models because it factors in population and chronic disease demographics in Africa. It also helps to determine parameters based on statistical analysis of COVID-19 case data and not just clinic studies.

ND: Please unpack the risk assessment model in more detail.

TM: Models use information presented in the past to try and predict the future. Therefore, obtaining accurate information is critical. Even with the most accurate information, models are not perfect and need to be perpetually reviewed.

To help us develop our COVID-19 risk assessment model, we split our ARI COVID-19 Project team into smaller research teams and developed African datasets for COVID-19. We homed in on population demographics, chronic diseases, COVID-19 movement restrictions, migration patterns and healthcare systems. For chronic diseases, we came up with ARI African Disease Burden 2020 estimates. We then designed our SEIR model, which integrates all these datasets with an epidemiological interpretation

ND: Why was there a need to come up with this risk assessment model?

TM: Following the outbreak of COVID-19, epidemiological modelling garnered much attention in South Africa. But we noticed that crucial information applicable to the continent was missing.

 

“We developed a special model that considers Africa’s population and the chronic diseases our people suffer from.”

Given the disease burden in Africa, we developed a special model that considers Africa’s population and the chronic diseases our people suffer from. Because national lockdowns and travel limitations have come at a great cost to African economies, our model also looks into the potential risk of imported COVID-19 cases, with the prospect that borders will eventually be opened to alleviate the economic pressure.

ND: How will this risk assessment benefit South Africa and the continent at large?

TM: Our model provides government and other relevant authorities with critical information, such as predicted daily cases (mild, severe and critical) and potential COVID-19 comorbidities, which will enable them to plan healthcare systems and facilities adequately in order to deal with the effects of the pandemic.

Further, our model looks at the impact of national lockdowns and travel restrictions on the rate of infections. This will help quantify the effectiveness of these strategies. It also examines herd immunity, when a country has enough of its population immune to a disease. Quantifying the herd immunity will help determine the number of people that will need to be vaccinated to stop the epidemic.

Just this week our partnership with the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy [in Washington] was made official. Part of this collaboration is to share our model and the information we continue to collect.

ND: What are your next steps?

TM: We plan to create risk assessment epidemiological models for all African countries while considering each country’s population and disease burden. The model’s design will remain standard, but we’ll adjust parameters according to the country.


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UCT’s response to COVID-19

COVID-19 is a global pandemic that caused President Cyril Ramaphosa to declare a national disaster in South Africa on 15 March 2020 and to implement a national lockdown from 26 March 2020. UCT is taking the threat of infection in our university community extremely seriously, and this page will be updated with the latest COVID-19 information. Please note that the information on this page is subject to change depending on current lockdown regulations.

Minister of Health, Dr Joe Phaahla, has in June 2022 repealed some of South Africa’s remaining COVID-19 regulations: namely, sections 16A, 16B and 16C of the Regulations Relating to the Surveillance and the Control of Notifiable Medical Conditions under the National Health Act. We are now no longer required to wear masks or limit gatherings. Venue restrictions and checks for travellers coming into South Africa have now also been removed.

In July 2022, the University of Cape Town (UCT) revised its approach to managing the COVID-19 pandemic on UCT campuses in 2022.
Read the latest document available on the UCT policies web page.

 

Campus communications

 
2022

Adjusting to our new environment 16:50, 23 June 2022
VC Open Lecture and other updates 17:04, 13 April 2022
Feedback from UCT Council meeting of 12 March 2022 09:45, 18 March 2022
UCT Council
March 2022 graduation celebration 16:45, 8 March 2022
Report on the meeting of UCT Council of 21 February 2022 19:30, 21 February 2022
UCT Council
COVID-19 management 2022 11:55, 14 February 2022
Return to campus arrangements 2022 11:15, 4 February 2022

UCT Community of Hope Vaccination Centre

On Wednesday, 20 July, staff from the University of Cape Town’s (UCT) Faculty of Health Sciences came together with representatives from the Western Cape Government at the UCT Community of Hope Vaccination Centre at Forest Hill Residence to acknowledge the centre’s significance in the fight against COVID-19 and to thank its staff for their contributions. The centre opened on 1 September 2021 with the aim of providing quality vaccination services to UCT staff, students and the nearby communities, as well as to create an opportunity for medical students from the Faculty of Health Sciences to gain practical public health skills. The vaccination centre ceased operations on Friday, 29 July 2022.

With the closure of the UCT Community of Hope Vaccination Centre, if you still require access to a COVID-19 vaccination site please visit the CovidComms SA website to find an alternative.

 

“After almost a year of operation, the University of Cape Town’s (UCT) Community of Hope Vaccination Centre, located at the Forest Hill residence complex in Mowbray, will close on Friday, 29 July 2022. I am extremely grateful and proud of all staff, students and everyone involved in this important project.”
– Vice-Chancellor Prof Mamokgethi Phakeng

With the closure of the UCT Community of Hope Vaccination Centre, if you still require access to a COVID-19 vaccination site please visit the CovidComms SA website to find an alternative.


Thank You UCT Community

Frequently asked questions

 

Global Citizen Asks: Are COVID-19 Vaccines Safe & Effective?

UCT’s Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine (IDM) collaborated with Global Citizen, speaking to trusted experts to dispel vaccine misinformation.



If you have further questions about the COVID-19 vaccine check out the FAQ produced by the Desmond Tutu Health Foundation (DTHF). The DTHF has developed a dedicated chat function where you can ask your vaccine-related questions on the bottom right hand corner of the website.

IDM YouTube channel | IDM website
 

 

“As a contact university, we look forward to readjusting our undergraduate and postgraduate programmes in 2023 as the COVID-19 regulations have been repealed.”
– Prof Harsha Kathard, Acting Deputy Vice-Chancellor: Teaching and Learning

We are continuing to monitor the situation and we will be updating the UCT community regularly – as and when there are further updates. If you are concerned or need more information, students can contact the Student Wellness Service on 021 650 5620 or 021 650 1271 (after hours), while staff can contact 021 650 5685.

 

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